Republicans' hopes of recapturing the political initiative fall flat

Republicans' hopes of recapturing the political initiative fall flat
By Holly Yeager in Washington
Published: February 4 2006 02:00 | Last updated: February 4 2006 02:00. Copyright by the Financial Times

Republicans had wanted to make this their turnaround week.

George W. Bush's State of the Union address was a chance for the White House to set out a fresh vision - improving the president's public standing and laying the groundwork for the party's 2006 midterm election campaigns in the process, they hoped.

Congressional leaders thought a quick move on lobbying reform and the election of a new majority leader in the House of Representatives to replace the embattled Tom DeLay would help contain the damage of recent scandals.

"The Republicans know that they have issues and the status quo isn't good enough come November," said Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster. "There is a desire to change now, before voters make the change for them."

But with Democrats consistently outscoring Republicans in opinion polls and growing evidence that voters are fed up with everyone in Washington, Republicans fear they may need to do far more if they are to hold on to their majority.

Ed Rollins, political director in the Reagan White House, said Mr Bush's speech offered a clear statement of his foreign policy vision, and a clear defence of the war in Iraq.

But the less ambitious discussion of domestic issues -- including energy independence, healthcare and competitiveness - fell short of an agenda for a campaign year. "There was nothing coming out of it to really give Republicans anything to run on," he said.

While booming federal deficits mean "there's no room for new initiatives [because] there's no money", Mr Rollins said Republicans should instead use that limitation to bolster their call for fiscal responsibility.

Tom Rath, a member of the Republican National Committee from New Hampshire, said the president's speech and his travels across the country to promote it - as well as the budget he will unveil on Monday - "shows a White House that is working very hard to control the agenda".

But he said Republicans had to put some of these things behind them, such as the scandal swarming around Jack Abramoff, a powerful lobbyist with close ties to Mr DeLay.

The surprise election of John Boehner as majority leader - over Roy Blunt, who was seen as close to Mr DeLay - shows that Republicans are eager for a new face. While questions about their leadership have plagued the party since Mr DeLay stepped down in September, Republicans are hopeful they can now focus on running the country.

The Republicans have scored recent victories. Samuel Alito was sworn in to the US Supreme Court this week. The House gave final approval to a five-year, $39.7bn package of spending cuts, the first cuts to mandatory spending programmes since 1997, and sent the measure to Mr Bush for his signature. And the Senate passed a five-year, $70bn (€58bn, £40bn) package of tax cuts, making some action on taxes nearly certain in the coming weeks.

But recent polls suggest voters may care little about such accomplishments. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll this week found that, by a 47 per cent to 38 per cent margin, Americans prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats to one controlled by Republicans.

Perhaps more worrying: 46 per cent said it was time to give a new candidate a chance to serve in Congress, rather than the incumbent - a warning that the November elections could see a large number of seats turn over.

Such dramatic shifts only happen occasionally - such as in 1994, when Newt Gingrich's Contract with America and a series of Democratic scandals helped Republicans take control of the House for the first time in 40 years.

Republicans take comfort in what they say has been the Democrats' failure to present their own agenda, but they know they still have their work cut out for themselves. "The country is cranky," Mr Rath said. "When you don't feel good, you tend to blame the incumbent."

For the mood to improve, the country needs about six months without a natural disaster or a worsening situation in Iraq, he added. Mr Rath is optimistic about November. "This is not a time that people need to make decisions," he said. "They need to send messages."