Chicago Tribune Editorial - Losing the (Israeli) war

Chicago Tribune Editorial - Losing the war
Copyright © 2006, Chicago Tribune
Published August 15, 2006

Within hours of a UN-ordered cease-fire, a new and entirely predictable skirmish broke out Monday: Both sides declared they had won.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert declared that the war had shifted the strategic balance of the region and that the UN agreement had eliminated the "state within a state" run by Hezbollah. Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah declared a "historic victory" over Israel.

It's hard to find victory anywhere in this. How this war is remembered will be important for the future of peace in the Middle East, but what's more important now is that the UN and the Lebanese government move quickly to shore up the tenuous cease-fire. With Lebanese civilians streaming back to their homes, the Lebanese Army needs to take control of the region and not allow Hezbollah to rearm and return to its previous positions along the border.

The UN also must move swiftly: The head of the UN peacekeeping force said Monday that the new international reinforcements to help the Lebanese Army enforce the cease-fire "need to arrive as quickly as possible." That means days, not weeks. If Hezbollah is allowed to operate as it has in the past, then another war is all but assured.

What will history say about this war? In the early days, a Hezbollah official told a reporter that its leadership had not expected the massive Israeli offensive after it snatched two Israeli soldiers and killed three others. "The truth is--let me say this clearly--we didn't even expect [this] response ... that [Israel] would exploit this operation for this big war against us," Mahmoud Komati, the deputy chief of the Hezbollah political arm, told the Associated Press. Instead, he said, he expected the "usual, limited" response from Israel. He said Hezbollah leaders expected Israel to respond by negotiating a prisoner swap.

Whether that's true or not, this monthlong conflict was marked by what appear to be huge miscalculations on both sides. The infrastructure of Hezbollah and its host country, Lebanon, is in ruins. Hundreds of civilians in Lebanon were killed. Israel lost troops and civilians--and the luster of a seemingly invincible military machine. It was unable to stop Hezbollah rockets fired every day into Israel's northern cities.

Both sides will now face repercussions. For Israel, the sharp criticism of Olmert and his war Cabinet already has begun. Israeli leaders set expectations too high, suggesting a swift and crushing Israeli victory. Several members of the Israeli parliament were ejected during Olmert's speech Monday for heckling; others are calling for a commission of inquiry. Among many questions will be whether Olmert overreacted to the initial threat and whether he and his advisers were too reliant on air power in the beginning and too slow to commit ground troops.

Hezbollah leaders will face tough questions too. They have to answer to thousands of Shiite refugees who have lost much. Hezbollah may have won a psychological victory by standing toe-to-toe with Israel.

But look at the larger picture: The result of the war Hezbollah started is a robust peacekeeping force that will flood into southern Lebanon to ensure that Hezbollah can no longer create mayhem, and, it is hoped, to ensure that Hezbollah can no longer be armed by its patrons in Syria and Iran.

From here, it looks like everybody lost.