Mexico's Opposition Should Accept Reality

Mexico's Opposition Should Accept Reality
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006
Published: August 30 2006 03:00 | Last updated: August 30 2006 03:00


The saga of Mexico's disputed election is entering its final stages. After a partial recount electoral authorities on Monday dismissed legal challenges to last month's vote and within the next few days they look set to confirm the narrow triumph of Felipe Calderón, the centre-right candidate. This will leave many questions about the election unanswered but it is a result that the defeated leftwing candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, should accept.

Rightly or wrongly, millions of mainly poorer Mexicans believe that the election was unfair. A full recount would have been the best way to demonstrate that Mexico´s democracy is genuine and representative. Given the country's history and deep social and geographical divisions, a recount would also have helped establish the legitimacy of any incoming president.

Yet the electoral authorities have ruled out this option and Mr López Obrador must decide what to do. He appears more determined than ever to embark on a radical course of action, designed to secure, as he told the Financial Times last week, the "peaceful and democratic . . . revolution" that he believes Mexico needs. The occupation of central Mexico City by his supporters will continue. Next month, Mr López Obrador could assume the presidency of a "parallel government".

This is dangerous for several reasons. First, Mr López Obrador could damage the credibility and reduce the support of his Democratic Revolution Party (PRD). Opinion polls have shown that Mexicans are heavily opposed to the direct action being recommended by the leftwing leader. Many, including a large number of those who voted for Mr López Obrador in July, are anxious to resume their daily lives.

Second, whatever his stated intentions, Mr López Obrador risks weakening the ability of elected authorities at both national and local level to govern effectively. These include the local government of Mexico City, won in July by the PRD.

Third, Mr López Obrador runs the risk of encouraging extremists to take violent action on his behalf. The chaos and instability resulting from all this could do a great deal of damage to Mexico, undermining the economic and social progress that the country has made in recent years.

Mr López Obrador should therefore seek to exercise his right to protest through constitutional channels. He is in an excellent position to do so. His PRD party emerged from the vote with 126 deputies in the lower house of congress, their best ever showing. The party would be well placed to press the opposition's campaign for political reform, including for example a second round of voting in future presidential elections, a simple change that would make disputes less likely to occur in future. Persisting with his current course would be a disaster for Mr López Obrador, his party and, above all, for his country.