Financial Times Editorial Comment: Republican stakes ahead of 2008

Financial Times Editorial Comment: Republican stakes ahead of 2008
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Published: August 26 2007 15:55 | Last updated: August 26 2007 15:55



True to the nostrum that in politics a gaffe is when a politician tells the truth, Hillary Clinton slipped up last week by saying that a terrorist attack in the US would help the Republicans. So it would, and none more so than the party’s frontrunner, Rudolph Giuliani, who is making national security the signature theme of his campaign. One might think it odd that the Republicans should still have this edge: the current administration has not made a notable success of its war on terror. Yet Democrats have failed to press the advantage. Their ill-advised discomfort with the very phrase “war on terror” may be partly to blame: to many Americans, that signals irresolution.

Fear of domestic terrorism is subsiding, however. If this continues, the Republicans will face a daunting test in November next year. The party itself, to say nothing of voters at large, lacks enthusiasm for any of its declared candidates.

Mr Giuliani, running on the leadership he displayed as mayor of New York in 2001, is not exactly a formula Republican: three-times married, estranged from his children, pro-choice on abortion, a liberal on immigration, an advocate of gun control. Mitt Romney is a smooth performer with an eerily attractive family and, lately, the correct social-conservative positions; but aside from being a member of a strange religion, he does not convey strength of conviction. For that, one always looked to John McCain, but he offended too many party members and is no longer among the frontrunners. Such is the disaffection with the announced contenders that the still-undeclared Fred Thompson – whose mysterious appeal can lie only in being none of the above – stands second to Mr Giuliani for the nomination. It is a situation that may yet tempt other candidates into the race.

Despite all this, and the legacy of a failed Republican presidency as well, the Republicans should not be written off. The fact that Mr Giuliani, with all his impressive defects, leads the contest for the nomination points to something significant: the party’s voters are not so gloomy or demoralised that they have lost the will to win. Mr Giuliani’s advantage in their eyes is that his appeal to independents would make him the party’s best hope in the general election. Polls continue to suggest that Mr Giuliani would give Mrs Clinton or Barack Obama more of a fight than would Mr Romney or Mr Thompson.

Republicans are not yet ready to back a loser or just give up. Unless that changes, the Democratic nominee, whoever that may be, will have a fight on her or his hands.